Cost and Value Results
Author: Ranjit Deshmukh 11/13/2016 This script does the following 1) Creates the results table using outputs from the results csv from the Renewable Energy Value model
## [1] "/Users/ranjitster/Dropbox/renewable_energy_value/renewable_energy_value"Define input files…
Specify scenarios to process…
User parameter inputs…
Function to grab legend…
Import results and other parameter from csv files…
Creating empty results data tables and lists for plots…
Capital recovery factor…
Preparing the results input table…
Variables description
VRE stands for variable renewable energy.
Energy generation, capacity, and dispatch costs - inputs from REV model script
dispatch_cost: Total annual dispatch cost
ann_gen_total_MWh: Annual total energy generation (includes losses due to battery storage)
ann_load_total_MWh: Annual total load or demand (does not include losses due to battery storage)
ann_gen_vre_nocurt_MWh: Uncurtailed VRE generation potential
ann_gen_vre_MWh: Annual VRE energy generation
ann_curt_vre_MWh: Annual curtailed VRE generation
ann_gen_solarPV_MWh: Annual Solar PV energy generation
ann_gen_wind_MWh: Annual Wind energy generation
ann_gen_coal_MWh: Annual Coal energy generation
ann_gen_gas_ccgt_MWh: Annual CCGT energy generation
ann_gen_gas_ct_MWh: Annual CT energy generation
ann_gen_diesel_MWh: Annual Diesel energy generation
ann_gen_hydro_MWh: Annual Hydro (including storage hydro and RoR) energy generation
ann_gen_nuclear_MWh: Annual Nuclear energy generation
ann_gen_other_MWh: Annual ‘Other’ energy generation including biomass, bagasse.
ann_discharge_bat_storage_MWh: Annual battery storage discharge
ann_charge_bat_storage_MWh: Annual battery storage charge
new_capacity_coal_MW: New coal capacity build
new_capacity_gas_ccgt_MW: New ccgt capacity build
new_capacity_gas_ct_MW: New ct capacity build
capacity_vre_MW: VRE capacity
capacity_solarPV_MW: Solar PV capacity
capacity_wind_MW: Wind capacity
capacity_bat_storage_MW: Battery storage capacity in MW
capacity_bat_storage_MWh: Battery storage capacity in MWh (MWh/MW gives number of hours of battery storage)
Total annual costs
ann_cap_cost_coal_mil: Annual capital cost of coal in millions ann_cap_cost_ccgt_mil: Annual capital cost of CCGT in millions ann_cap_cost_ct_mil: Annual capital cost of CT in millions ann_cap_cost_solar_mil: Annual capital cost of solar PV in millions ann_cap_cost_wind_mil: Annual capital cost of wind in millions ann_cap_cost_battery_mil: Annual capital cost of battery storage in millions total_cost_new_conv: Total annual cost of new conventional capacity (annualized cost)
total_cost_vre: Total annual cost of VRE in million USD (annualized cost)
total_cost_capacity: Total cost of conventional + VRE capacity i.e. total_cost_new_conv + total_cost_vre
total_cost_energy: Total annual cost of energy generation from all generation sources (result from economic dispatch model)
total_cost: Total annual cost i.e. total_cost_capacity + total_cost_energy (annualized fixed costs of existing conventional capacity is not included here. Cancels our for additional costs of VRE)
system_cost_vre: Total annual additional cost of vre i.e. (total cost of VRE scenario - total cost of zero VRE scenario)
Costs per curtailed or uncrutailed VRE
cost_vre_pMWh: Cost of VRE per MWh of VRE after curtailment i.e. (total_cost_vre/ann_gen_vre_MWh)
cost_vre_nocurt_pMWh: Cost of VRE per MWh of VRE before curtailment i.e. (total_cost_vre/ann_gen_vre_nocurt_MWh)
cost_battery_pMWh: Cost of battery storage per MWh of VRE after curtailment i.e. (ann_cap_cost_battery_mil10^6/ann_gen_vre_MWh)
cost_battery_nocurt_pMWh: Cost of battery storage per MWh of VRE before curtailment i.e. (ann_cap_cost_battery_mil10^6/ann_gen_vre_nocurt_MWh)
cost_vre_battery_pMWh: Cost of VRE and battery storage per MWh of VRE after curtailment i.e. (cost_vre_pMWh + cost_battery_pMWh) <– USE THIS FOR EITHER VRE OR BOTH VRE AND BATTERY
cost_vre_battery_nocurt_pMWh: Cost of VRE and battery storage per MWh of VRE before curtailment i.e. (cost_vre_nocurt_pMWh + cost_battery_nocurt_pMWh) <– USE THIS FOR EITHER VRE OR BOTH VRE AND BATTERY
Capacity and energy value
capacity_value_pMWh: Capacity value of VRE target per VRE generation after curtailment i.e. difference between annualized costs of new conventional capacity of VRE scenario and zero VRE scenario per MWh of VRE generation
energy_value_pMWh: Energy value of VRE target per VRE generation after curtailment i.e. difference between total annual energy costs of VRE scenario and zero VRE scenario per MWh of VRE generation
total_value_pMWh: Total of capacity and energy value of VRE i.e. (capacity_value_pMWh + energy_value_pMWh)
Additional system cost due to VRE
system_cost_vre_pMWh: Additional system cost due to VRE for a VRE scenario compared to a zero VRE scenario per MWH of VRE i.e. (cost_vre_pMWh + cost_battery_pMWh - capacity_value_pMWh - energy_value_pMWh)
system_cost_add_pMWh_load: Additional system cost due to VRE for a VRE scenario compared to a zero VRE scenario per MWH of Load served. (Load served now does not include battery storage losses in battery scenarios. Additional system cost is divided by ann_load_total_MWh.)
system_cost_add_perc: Additional overall cost of VRE as a % of no VRE system cost
Cost or benefit of mitigating CO2 emissions
total_emissions_co2_milTonnes: Total CO2 emissions in million tonnes
grid_emissions_factor_kg_kWh: Grid emissions factor
cost_emissions_reduction_pTonneCO2_avg: Average cost of CO2 reduction in USD per tonne of CO2
cost_emissions_reduction_pTonneCO2_marginal: Marginal cost of CO2 reduction in USD per tonne of CO2 (for every 200 GW target)
Processing results…
[1] “base”
[1] “coal_55mingen”
[1] “coal_ccgt_0mingen”
[1] “wind10LC”
[1] “wind20LC”
[1] “wind30LC”
[1] “solar10LC”
[1] “solar20LC”
[1] “solar30LC”
[1] “wind30LC_solar30LC”
[1] “wind120HH_solar1A”
[1] “battery15”
[1] “battery30”
[1] “battery60”
[1] “battery15B25LC”
[1] “battery30B25LC”
[1] “battery15B50LC”
[1] “battery30B50LC”
[1] “battery60B50LC”
[1] “high_cost_coal”
[1] “wind30LC_solar30LC_coalHC”
[1] “battery60_coalHC”
[1] “battery60B50LC_coalHC”
[1] “load_modD0M0_energyOnly”
[1] “load_modD50M0_energyOnly”
[1] “load_modD25M25_energyOnly”
Processed Results Table…
scenario scenario_main dispatch_cost ann_gen_total_MWh
1: S0W0 base 4.61e+12 2424553182
2: S0W200 base 3.53e+12 2424553182
3: S50W150 base 3.58e+12 2424553182
4: S100W100 base 3.67e+12 2424553182
5: S150W50 base 3.82e+12 2424553182
6: S200W0 base 4.04e+12 2424553182
ann_gen_vre_nocurt_MWh ann_gen_vre_MWh ann_curt_vre_MWh
1: 0 0 0
2: 477166828 477093308 73516
3: 454821772 454776174 45593
4: 427217839 426206260 1011581
5: 392945562 375118489 17827089
6: 348007539 278446347 69561203
ann_gen_solarPV_MWh ann_gen_wind_MWh ann_gen_coal_MWh
1: 0 0 2226209347
2: 0 477093308 1763116977
3: 87798653 366977521 1783235771
4: 174521298 251684961 1807136233
5: 246842982 128275508 1849931247
6: 278446347 0 1945090909
ann_gen_gas_ccgt_MWh ann_gen_gas_ct_MWh ann_gen_diesel_MWh
1: 37431382 1890048 187717.2
2: 23986378 1291599 229093.1
3: 25922219 1358091 426239.2
4: 30079658 1711104 585240.6
5: 37249322 2553021 866416.0
6: 38237836 2808021 1135382.3
ann_gen_other_MWh ann_gen_hydro_MWh ann_gen_nuclear_MWh
1: 0.00 128787887 30046800
2: 1139.25 128787887 30046800
3: 0.00 128787887 30046800
4: 0.00 128787887 30046800
5: 0.00 128787887 30046800
6: 0.00 128787887 30046800
ann_discharge_bat_storage_MWh ann_charge_bat_storage_MWh
1: 0 0
2: 0 0
3: 0 0
4: 0 0
5: 0 0
6: 0 0
new_capacity_coal_MW new_capacity_gas_ccgt_MW new_capacity_gas_ct_MW
1: 151140 0 13400
2: 126720 0 28800
3: 118800 0 25000
4: 119460 0 27400
5: 126720 0 24200
6: 144540 0 11000
capacity_vre_MW capacity_solarPV_MW capacity_wind_MW
1: 0 0 0
2: 200005 0 200005
3: 200025 50015 150010
4: 200102 100079 100023
5: 200039 150010 50029
6: 200004 200004 0
capacity_bat_storage_MW energy_bat_storage_MWh scenario_build
1: 0 0 0 GW
2: 0 0 200 GW
3: 0 0 200 GW
4: 0 0 200 GW
5: 0 0 200 GW
6: 0 0 200 GW
scenario_split rank date_time scenario_econ_dispatch
1: 0-0 1 1/17/18 0:22 ClcC70m
2: 0-100 2 1/17/18 14:02 ClcC70m
3: 25-75 3 1/17/18 16:51 ClcC70m
4: 50-50 4 1/17/18 18:07 ClcC70m
5: 75-25 5 1/17/18 19:30 ClcC70m
6: 100-0 6 1/17/18 20:59 ClcC70m
ann_load_total_MWh scenario_sensitivity capacity_solarPV_GW
1: 2424553182 ClcC70m 0
2: 2424553182 ClcC70m 0
3: 2424553182 ClcC70m 50
4: 2424553182 ClcC70m 100
5: 2424553182 ClcC70m 150
6: 2424553182 ClcC70m 200
capacity_wind_GW capacity_bat_storage_GW capital_solar_cost_USDpkW
1: 0 0 850
2: 200 0 850
3: 150 0 850
4: 100 0 850
5: 50 0 850
6: 0 0 850
capital_wind_cost_USDpkW capital_battery_cost_USDpkW
1: 1250 1200
2: 1250 1200
3: 1250 1200
4: 1250 1200
5: 1250 1200
6: 1250 1200
ann_fc_solar_cost_USDpkWpy ann_fc_wind_cost_USDpkWpy
1: 82.93894 122.2631
2: 82.93894 122.2631
3: 82.93894 122.2631
4: 82.93894 122.2631
5: 82.93894 122.2631
6: 82.93894 122.2631
ann_fc_battery_cost_USDpkWpy ann_cap_cost_coal_mil
1: 189.2715 19006.02
2: 189.2715 15935.17
3: 189.2715 14939.23
4: 189.2715 15022.22
5: 189.2715 15935.17
6: 189.2715 18176.06
ann_cap_cost_ccgt_mil ann_cap_cost_ct_mil ann_cap_cost_solar_mil
1: 0 873.4057 0.000
2: 0 1877.1705 0.000
3: 0 1629.4883 4148.191
4: 0 1785.9191 8300.446
5: 0 1577.3446 12441.670
6: 0 716.9748 16588.120
ann_cap_cost_wind_mil ann_cap_cost_battery_mil total_cost_new_conv
1: 0.000 0 19879.42
2: 24453.241 0 17812.35
3: 18340.695 0 16568.71
4: 12229.127 0 16808.14
5: 6116.703 0 17512.52
6: 0.000 0 18893.03
total_cost_vre total_cost_capacity total_cost_energy total_cost
1: 0.00 19879.42 70923.08 90802.50
2: 24453.24 42265.59 54307.69 96573.28
3: 22488.89 39057.60 55076.92 94134.52
4: 20529.57 37337.71 56461.54 93799.25
5: 18558.37 36070.89 58769.23 94840.12
6: 16588.12 35481.15 62153.85 97635.00
system_cost_vre cost_vre_pMWh cost_vre_nocurt_pMWh cost_battery_pMWh
1: NA NaN NaN NaN
2: 5770.780 51.25463 51.24673 0
3: 3332.025 49.45045 49.44549 0
4: 2996.754 48.16816 48.05411 0
5: 4037.625 49.47336 47.22887 0
6: 6832.501 59.57385 47.66598 0
cost_battery_nocurt_pMWh cost_vre_battery_pMWh
1: NaN NaN
2: 0 51.25463
3: 0 49.45045
4: 0 48.16816
5: 0 49.47336
6: 0 59.57385
cost_vre_battery_nocurt_pMWh capacity_value_pMWh energy_value_pMWh
1: NaN NA NA
2: 51.24673 4.332646 34.82628
3: 49.44549 7.279860 34.84385
4: 48.05411 7.206089 33.93084
5: 47.22887 6.309745 32.40002
6: 47.66598 3.542470 31.49343
total_value_pMWh system_cost_vre_pMWh capacity_value_nocurt_pMWh
1: NA NA NA
2: 39.15892 12.095705 4.331978
3: 42.12371 7.326736 7.279130
4: 41.13693 7.031230 7.189026
5: 38.70976 10.763599 6.023486
6: 35.03590 24.537945 2.834387
energy_value_nocurt_pMWh total_value_nocurt_pMWh
1: NA NA
2: 34.82091 39.15289
3: 34.84036 42.11949
4: 33.85050 41.03953
5: 30.93010 36.95359
6: 25.19839 28.03278
system_cost_vre_nocurt_pMWh system_cost_add_pMWh_load
1: NA NA
2: 12.093841 2.380142
3: 7.326001 1.374284
4: 7.014581 1.236003
5: 10.275278 1.665307
6: 19.633198 2.818045
system_cost_add_perc vre_share_after_curt vre_curt vre_share_nocurt
1: NA NA NA NA
2: 0.06355309 0.1967758 0.0001540759 0.1968061
3: 0.03669530 0.1875711 0.0001002542 0.1875899
4: 0.03300299 0.1757875 0.0023678302 0.1762048
5: 0.04446601 0.1547165 0.0453677930 0.1620693
6: 0.07524574 0.1148444 0.1998841528 0.1435347
total_emissions_co2_milTonnes grid_emissions_factor_kg_kWh
1: 2065.178 0.8517769
2: 1633.143 0.6735853
3: 1652.669 0.6816387
4: 1676.757 0.6915735
5: 1719.900 0.7093680
6: 1808.244 0.7458049
total_emissions_reduced_milTonnes emissions_reduction
1: NA NA
2: 432.0350 0.2091998
3: 412.5091 0.1997450
4: 388.4218 0.1880814
5: 345.2781 0.1671904
6: 256.9348 0.1244129
cost_emissions_reduction_pTonneCO2_avg avoided_conv_cap_mw_perVREmw
1: NA NA
2: 13.357205 0.04509887
3: 8.077458 0.10368704
4: 7.715207 0.08835494
5: 11.693834 0.06808672
6: 26.592349 0.04499910
avoided_conv_cap_mw_per_new_conv_noRE_mw coal_share_new_conv_cap
1: NA 0.9185608
2: 0.05481950 0.8148148
3: 0.12604838 0.8261474
4: 0.10745108 0.8134278
5: 0.08277622 0.8396501
6: 0.05469795 0.9292786
existing_capacity_coal_MW existing_capacity_ccgt_MW
1: 189749 21944
2: 189749 21944
3: 189749 21944
4: 189749 21944
5: 189749 21944
6: 189749 21944
existing_capacity_ct_MW plf_coal plf_gas
1: 1579 0.7455022 0.12157051
2: 1579 0.6359835 0.05515001
3: 1579 0.6597517 0.06417968
4: 1579 0.6671672 0.07126608
5: 1579 0.6672987 0.09520873
6: 1579 0.6642227 0.13572401write results csv…
Scenarios for individual plots…
Pull scenario sensitivities…
Plot themes, positions, and labels. Processing 200-400-600 GW scenarios…
Create individual plots [Disabled with eval = FALSE]…
Print and save the plots [Disabled with eval=FALSE]…
Plot functions
- Line plots with facets by VRE target
- Line plots with facets by VRE split
RE share, RE curtailment, Coal PLFs, and grid emissions factors
Wind, solar and coal cost inividual plots (absorbed/curtailed and uncurtailed/potential VRE generation)
Wind solar and coal plots in a panel (cost and value expressed as per uncurtailed VRE)
Key Insights
Uncurtailed VRE shares range from 17-20% for 200 GW, 30-38% for 400 GW, and 41-50% for 600 GW VRE targets.
However, after curtailment due to technical and economic reasons, VRE shares drop to 11-20% for 200 GW, 12-35% for 400 GW, and 13-43% for 600 GW VRE targets.
VRE curtailment is greatest for solar dominated scenarios. Because of the constraint on minimum generation levels (70% in the base scenario), coal plants are unable to back down in order to accommodate solar generation in spit of its zero marginal cost. In this study, coal plants are assumed to stay online throughout the day if their generation is essential to meet net peak demand at any time of the day.
High cost coal, when costs for air pollution control systems are included, decreases average additional cost of VRE to the system to below zero for 3 out of the 5 VRE split scenarios with a 600 GW target because VRE displaces coal generation with a higher variable cost.
Wind solar and coal plots in a panel (cost and value expressed as per curtailed VRE)
Battery storage plots
Battery storage plots in a panel (cost and value expressed as per uncurtailed VRE)
Modify the battery plots in this code chunk.
Battery storage plots in a panel (cost and value expressed as per curtailed VRE)
Modify the battery plots in this code chunk.
Minimum Generation Level plots
Minimum generation level plots in a panel (cost and value expressed as per uncurtailed VRE)
Modify the min gen plots in this code chunk
Minimum generation level plots in a panel (cost and value expressed as per curtailed VRE)
Modify the min gen plots in this code chunk
Load modified plots
Modified load plots in a panel (cost and value expressed as per uncurtailed VRE)
Modify the load modification plots in this code chunk
Modified load plots in a panel (cost and value expressed as per curtailed VRE)
Modify the load modification plots in this code chunk
Additional System Costs due to VRE (and Storage) Panel
Average Emissions Mitigation Costs due to VRE (and Storage) Panel
Changing VRE value with higher hub heights and solar PV tracking
Capacity buildout for base case
Modified load curves
Statistics for paper
[1] "For base and S50W150, cost per MWh for wind is 49.9777058468621 and for solar is 47.2221143884778"
[1] "For base and S150W50, cost per MWh for wind is 46.5928004639832 and for solar is 47.547986162247"
[1] "For base and S0W600, cost per MWh for wind is 57.0148211790264 and for solar is NaN"
[1] "For base and S600W0, cost per MWh for wind is NaN and for solar is 48.4827831713318"
[1] "For wind30LC_solar30LC and S50W150, cost per MWh for wind is 42.3660174396163 and for solar is 36.4247006385842"
[1] "For wind30LC_solar30LC and S150W50, cost per MWh for wind is 44.0094052120658 and for solar is 33.0848824965302"
[1] "For wind30LC_solar30LC and S0W600, cost per MWh for wind is 45.0900794459357 and for solar is NaN"
[1] "For wind30LC_solar30LC and S600W0, cost per MWh for wind is NaN and for solar is 31.4279097396331"[1] 0.1636076[1] 0.256168